Moroke Sekoboto
THE ruling Revolution for Prosperity (RFP) internal conflict is a ticking time-bomb which, if left unresolved, could lead to the implosion of both the party and the government it leads, analysts have said.
Political experts who spoke to the Lesotho Times this week said the recent suspension of three RFP legislators who voted with the opposition in parliament last week, coupled with allegations of a plot to murder some MPs leading to some of them enlisting the services of bodyguards to tighten their security, and attempts to muzzle the voices of members with dissenting views, are but a few of glaring signs of a crisis in Prime Minister Sam Matekane’s party.
Last week, three RFP MPs namely Dr Mahali Phamotse, Thuso Makhalanyane and Rethabile Letlailana representing the Matlakeng, Abia and Lithoteng constituencies respectively, voted against their government in the national assembly, resulting in Phamotse and Makhalanyane being suspended on Saturday, and Letlailana on Monday this week.
According to the political scientists, it does not help matters that on11 August 2023, Premier Matekane made veiled threats to ‘rebels’ within his party, while addressing a local elections campaign rally in Maputsoe. Days before the Maputose rally, Minister of Information, Communications, Science, Technology, and Innovation, Nthati Moorosi, also went on national television to warn those who were trying to destabilise the RFP government to stop because theirs was a legitimate government. The minister further threatened that “harsh measures will be taken against those trying to destabilise government”.
Political analyst, Nkopane Mathibeli, says the situation in the RFP has become cause for concern. “The intraparty power-squabbles within a ruling party, logically results in governance failure because much time is spent fighting instead ofdelivering services to the masses,” Mr Mathibeli said.
“The current RFP situation will definitely not be an exception. It is however, worth noting that even before the crisis got to its current state, the RFP-led service-delivery programme was already not-so-inspiring when placed against Matekane’s election promises.”
Against this background and in the event that service delivery worsens, Mr Mathibeli said, it would be an overstatement toconclude that the so-classified ‘rebels’ (Makhalanyane, Phamotse, Letlailana and others) have overseen a rebellion that derailed the service-delivery train.
“On the contrary, from the onset and just as has been the case with previous governments, the service-delivery programme was compromised by, among others, the political as opposed to meritocratic deployment of personnel,” Mr Mathibeli said.
He, however, also said the three MPs would not be forming their own party in reaction to their six-year suspension from the RFP as this would be an act of political naiveté on their part. This, he added, was because although their “rebellion” was politically justified given the grievances they cite, for instance nepotism-based as opposed to meritocracy-baseddeployment of party cadres promised during electioneering, the fact that Lesotho’s politics still revolve around the personality cult as
opposed to substantive issues, it is highly likely that they currently appeal to a minority within the party.
“The majority within the party possibly sees them as enemies of their leader and his vision for Lesotho. The political fortunes of their political party (if they establish it) would likely be insignificant; after all, their political mileage as politicians is still in its infancy as they are yet to have national appeal,” Mr Mathibeli said.
He also said the legal route which Dr Phamotse and Mr Makhalanyane had taken would likely bear fruit for their cause.
Mr Mathibeli however, cited that given the shenanigans pertaining to the disappearance of court papers of a previous application to force their party’s interim committee to call a national executive committee elective conference, it remained to be seen if this will not happen to their current application to have their suspension annulled.
However, National University of Lesotho (NUL)’s Dr Tlohang Letsie of the faculty of social sciences, said there was a possibility of a split in the RFP, where some MPs might defect to other parties, or if they command majority support in the ruling party, they might start their own party.
“Chances are that some members may dump the RFP for other parties, which means the government will lose numbers in parliament. That will force the RFP to find other coalition partners. Should that be the case, the face of government will change and possibly the cabinet will reshuffle,” Dr Letsie said.
Dr Letsie echoed Mr Mathibe’s sentiments that it would be political suicide for Dr Phamotse to start her own political party.
“If the squabbles persist and are not amicably resolved, I don’t think the suspended legislators and their supporters have the capacity to form their own party, they can only defect. Dr Phamotse is not a political novice; she knows that forming a new party will be a political suicide. She has been in politics for some time now, she has been a minister but, she is not that popular except in her native Matlakeng constituency,” Dr Letsie said.
“Looking at the trend of events in the party, the suspended legislators are part of those who challenged through courts of law, the RFP meritocracy-based selection of the 2022 elections candidates. They went on to represent the party after winning the case. So, I think the easiest way of dealing with the matter is to approach the courts, which they have done.
“If the courts nullify their suspension and they are reinstated, it means the conflicts will continue in the RFP, as I don’t think they can solve the matter peacefully judging by the way the leadership has handled them thus far. If they win this case, it will depend on their conduct and that of the party going forward”.
Dr Letsie further said it was obvious that service-delivery will suffer because the leading coalition party is engaged in intraparty conflict, meaning the leadership’s focus is primarily on neutralizing squabbles instead of serving the people.
Throwing his hat in the ring, independent political expert, Lefu Thaela, said most ruling parties faced the same dilemma as the RFP because “everybody wants to lay their hands on the cake.”
In most cases, Mr Thaela said, the conflicts were caused by members wanting “access to the cake”, starting from cabinet appointments as everyone would want to be a minister.
The appointment of ministers, he added, was not based on merit as prime ministers chose their favourites. He said the RFP had fallen into the same trap and the downsizing of cabinet made the party more vulnerable.
He further noted that the RFP has been in and out of courts of law since its formation because its leadership “makes other members feel inferior”.
“The RFP has, since its formation, had cracks because of its meritocracy mantra, leading to people who had won primary elections being sidelined and made to feel inferior while uplifting those preferred by the party’s leadership,” Mr Thaela said.
“Those who were undermined sought intervention from the courts of law and won. That created factions in the party and now cracks are widening to the extent that some MPs voted with the opposition, thus rendering government vulnerable as that could lead to the loss of numbers in parliament.”
He added: “I believe there are more RFP members who would vote with the opposition, especially those who were allowed to represent the party at elections via a court order. They may fear that they won’t have a place in the RFP post-2027. They would be lured by the opposition, being promised cabinet posts. That would make government vulnerable. Besides, there might be a change anytime soon.”
He added that should the courts declare the three MPs’ suspension unlawful, “they will not be accepted by the party” adding “they did not go to court to fight their suspension, they only want to remain members so that they can fight from the inside until they are ready to defect”.
NUL’s Professor Motlamelle Kapa, also of the faculty of social sciences, said what is happening in the RFP is not new in Lesotho politics.
“What is happening in the RFP is not new. We have seen it before.
When there was conflict and instability in all the leading coalition parties, it had adverse impact on the government, leading to instability with government itself and ultimately collapse thereof. We cannot say for sure if that will happen in the RFP, especially, if it is only these three who have been suspended and that there won’t be more to come,” Prof Kapa said.
He also said while government’s majority numbers in parliament would decrease based on the three suspended members “government is still stable”.
“It will only reduce the number of RFP seats in parliament not necessarily leading to change of government. But they are in danger of other MPs following in the footsteps of the three MPs. And joining them to cross the floor to the opposition and tabling a motion of no confidence could cause problems for the government. That could lead to its collapse,” Prof Kapa said.
“If they were to resolve their issues and ensure that the government doesn’t collapse, it will be stable, although its majority would have been affected. Service-delivery is not directly affected per se, specially if the government is stable and as suspended MPs are not in cabinet, service-delivery is rather remote as long as the cabinet is not affected.”
