Seithati Motšoeneng
A major new climate prediction report has warned of escalating global temperatures, melting Arctic ice, and shifting rainfall patterns over the next five years.
The report, compiled by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and 13 international research institutions, sets out a stark warning about the pace and scale of climate change, emphasising the need for urgent global action.
According to the forecast, global temperatures are projected to continue their upward trajectory over the next five years, with the global mean near-surface temperature between 2026 and 2030 expected to be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
Dr Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report, stated, “There is an 86% chance that at least one year within this period will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record”.
“This indicates a high likelihood of unprecedented heat events becoming the norm in the near future.”
The forecast also indicates a 91% chance that global temperatures will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold – the more ambitious of the two targets set by the Paris Agreement – at least once between 2026 and 2030. Temperatures already reached approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, a sign that rising heat shows no sign of slowing.
The forecast puts a 75% probability on the five-year average temperature exceeding that threshold. A rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels within this period, however, is considered highly unlikely, with the probability put at less than 1%.
The forecast also highlights the potential development of El Niño conditions, with an expected onset at the end of 2026 and possible escalation in 2027.
“The emergence of El Niño could significantly amplify global warming impacts, potentially leading to a record-breaking year in 2027. This pattern often results in severe droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves across various regions,” Dr Hermanson explained.
One of the most alarming projections concerns the Arctic region, where temperatures are expected to be significantly higher than the global average. The forecast predicts an anomaly of approximately 2.8°C over the next five northern hemisphere winters-more than three and a half times the global temperature rise.
Lesotho, a country already experiencing harsh repercussions of weather events, is expected to face intensified climate impacts. Lesotho Meteorological Services climate expert, Lethaha Rammolenyane, told the Lesotho Times this week that the Kingdom will not be spared from global warming.
“We can expect more extreme droughts, heavy rainfall, more severe frosts, and heatwaves.”
He emphasised the importance of climate-smart agricultural practices.
“Our farmers need to continuously monitor seasonal forecasts by the LMS and adopt adaptive measures to mitigate these impacts.”
The report’s forecast also points to notable shifts in rainfall patterns. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected at high northern latitudes and across the tropics.
“Conversely, regions like the Amazon may face prolonged droughts, which could severely impact biodiversity and local livelihoods,” the report states.
